London - Analysts at Barclays bank have significantly revised up their economic growth projections for Turkey and Russia in 2023, citing active policy support bolstering domestic demand in both countries.
The bank sharply raised its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkey to 2.9% from 1.2% previously, according to a report by analysts including Ibrahim Razzak and Zalina Albourova. For Russia, Barclays lifted its 2023 GDP growth estimate to 1.7%.
The analysts said the upgrade for Turkey comes after "stronger first half growth performance in 2023 supported by election-related policies and less restrictive policy implementation in the post-election environment than previously expected".
Given an expectation of a "similar policy stance" in 2024, the economists also revised up their Turkish growth forecast for that year to 1.6% from 0.5%, "with risks skewed to the upside this year and downside in 2024".
In Russia, fiscal stimulus and credit growth are driving an "economic recovery faster than anticipated, underpinned largely by domestic demand," Barclays analysts said. They warned, however, that inflation risks, sanctions and logistics troubles pose downside risks in the near term.
