Shares of CaixaBank (BME:CABK) fell by 0.7% despite the Spanish lender reporting a fourth-quarter attributable profit that exceeded consensus estimates.
The bank's profit for Q4 2024 stood at €1,539 million, a 9% beat against the company-compiled consensus of €1,414 million, including a €67 million positive gain. Excluding this one-time gain, net income would still have been around 7% above expectations.
Pre-tax profit (PBT) was 8% higher than consensus, or 5% excluding the one-off gain, with pre-provision profit coming in 3% above estimates. Revenue surpassed expectations by 2%, while costs were in line with consensus forecasts.
CaixaBank announced a final dividend per share (DPS) of €0.2864, leading to a full-year 2024 payout of 53.5%. The bank also revealed a €500 million share buyback and provided guidance for 2025 that is largely in line with current consensus numbers.
Net interest income (NII) was 1% above consensus, though it showed a 2% quarter-on-quarter decline and was flat year-on-year (YoY). Customer spreads decreased by 16 basis points over the quarter, driven by a 20 basis point drop in loan yield and a 4 basis point reduction in client funds costs.
Wealth Management, Protection Insurance, and Banking fees exceeded expectations by 4%, with notable performance in wealth management and banking fees after a softer third quarter. Protection insurance fee growth was more modest. Other revenues beat estimates by €7 million.
Impairments and other gains stood at -€370 million versus the consensus of €450 million, which includes the €67 million gain from the sale of a stake in an Eastern European acquiring business. The annualized cost of risk was reported at 27 basis points.
Customer loans were 1% above consensus, with a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 2% YoY rise. Conversely, customer deposits were 1% below consensus, decreasing by 1% quarter-on-quarter but increasing by 7% YoY. The CET1 capital ratio was reported at 12.2%, in line with consensus, even after accounting for a 22 basis point impact from the newly announced buyback. Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) were 1% higher than expected.
Looking ahead, CaixaBank's 2025 guidance projects net interest income to be down mid-single digits YoY, with revenue from services anticipated to grow by low to mid-single digits YoY.
Costs are expected to rise by approximately 5% YoY, with a cost of risk under 30 basis points and a return on tangible equity (RoTE) at around 16%. The dividend payout range is maintained at 50-60%, with the Basel impact estimated at around 15 basis points.
Jefferies commented on the results, stating: "CABK over delivered on the FY24 guidance, and new 2025 guidance is aligned with current consensus numbers. As we expected, this implies 2025 PBT down c10% y/y leaving 2025 as a still solid transitional year (16% RoTE), before EPS starts rebuilding in 2026E."
