Barclays Bank expects the Bank of England to cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, November 6, 2025.
In this regard, Barclays Bank explained that the potential rate cut decision by the Bank of England is based on several factors, which are:
Weaker than expected UK economic data: This includes a slowdown in wage growth, a declining labor market, and GDP growth lower than the Bank of England's estimates. The anticipated UK budget on November 26 is expected to include significant contractionary fiscal stimulus, with tax increases and spending adjustments. There is a risk that the Bank of England may choose to wait to see the announcements that Chancellor Reeves will make before making a final decision. Despite Barclays' expectations, most market analysts expect the Bank of England to hold the main interest rates steady this week, driven by the stability of UK inflation above the central bank's target.
