As President Donald Trump comes closer to a decision on the next Federal Reserve chair, Wolfe Research says one window stands out.
Access deep analyst research on InvestingPro — 55% off According to analyst Stephanie Roth, “the most likely 90-minute window” for an announcement is during the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Wolfe Research said this timing would make sense “particularly if Trump is looking to redirect attention away from a Fed that didn’t cut.”
Roth wrote that the announcement “could come as soon as this week, or within the next couple of weeks,” noting that Governor Miran’s seat turns over on Jan. 31.
Wolfe Research said Trump’s pick “would logically fill that vacancy ahead of the March FOMC—especially given the risk that Powell remains on the Board after his term as chair ends.”
Wolfe Research also reviewed market reactions to the leading candidates. The firm believes the markets view Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett as “relatively dovish, versus Waller and Warsh as more hawkish.”
Within that framework, “Hassett would likely steepen the curve, while Warsh… would be more of a curve flattener.”
The analyst added that “Hassett would likely be the most market-moving pick,” while Rieder is seen as Wall Street’s preferred option next to Waller.
Roth emphasized that she does not “have strong conviction on who Trump will ultimately choose,” writing that “there is no clear ‘unicorn’ that satisfies all of the president’s criteria.”
Still, Wolfe Research mentioned that the probabilities for Hassett “should be higher than the 6% currently implied by betting markets.”
