SoftBank Group Corp’s (TYO:9984) stake in OpenAI could deliver a $4.45 billion boost to net asset value following its December investment, according to BTIG. SoftBank completed a $22.5 billion forward purchase of OpenAI equity in late December, part of a planned $30 billion commitment in 2025.
While the cash outflow was matched by incoming assets, the valuation used for accounting creates a positive adjustment to equity.
The investment was executed at a $300 billion post-money valuation. Analysts at BTIG expect SoftBank to carry the stake at OpenAI’s more recent valuation of about $500 billion, implying a roughly 67% uplift on the deployed capital. Applied to the $22.5 billion tranche, this results in a gross gain of about $15 billion for the quarter.
Not all of that gain accrues to SoftBank shareholders. The position sits within SoftBank Vision Fund 2, where SoftBank retains 83% of the economics, with the remaining 17% attributed to Masayoshi Son. After this split, the gain attributable to shareholders falls to about $12.45 billion.
Analysts say investors must also account for an $8 billion unrealized gain already recognized earlier, tied to the rising value of the forward contract itself. Subtracting that amount avoids double counting and brings the net increase in equity and net asset value to about $4.45 billion.
Based on this adjustment, BTIG estimates SoftBank’s fair value mark for its OpenAI holding at $54.9 billion. That figure reflects the prior carrying value at the end of the second fiscal quarter, the December $22.5 billion investment, an earlier $1.45 billion capital infusion in October, and the newly calculated equity gain.
