Bitcoin’s recent rebound has improved near-term technical conditions, but one analyst warns that the broader setup suggests the cryptocurrency is still not out of the woods.
Get premium crypto news and insight by upgrading to InvestingPro - get 55% off today Since plunging below $90,000 last week, Bitcoin has rebounded by more than 7%, moving back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since the October peak.
Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg said this is a “good sign” for short-term momentum, and sees scope for the rally to extend toward the 200-day moving average around $105,000. He flags that level as the next key test for the price, “and likely where this bounce takes a breather.”
The recent move should be viewed as a bounce rather than the start of a renewed bull run. Bitcoin is already overbought for the first time since the October high, and Ginsberg notes that recent market action does not suggest investors are eager to add risk.
“While this bounce could very well persist for another week or so, we are not of the view that the space is back off to the races,” the analyst wrote.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has started 2026 as an underperformer relative to altcoins, which have seen sharp rebounds after being heavily sold last year.
“Bitcoin is just starting to see its momentum turn vs. Alt Coins,” Ginsberg said.
From a longer-term perspective, the analyst says the four-year cycle framework remains intact until a new high is made, highlighting that Bitcoin historically peaks roughly 530 days into each cycle, with the October high marking about 535 days.
He argues that the macro backdrop remains “gold-dominated,” with Bitcoin yet to capture much of the geopolitical or debasement-driven upside that has supported gold prices.
