Oil prices fell to a three-week low in Asian trade on Thursday, extending a round of recent losses as fears of a global supply glut were furthered by the OPEC+ now forecasting a surplus in 2026.
Oil prices took little relief from U.S. lawmakers voting to end the country’s longest ever government shutdown, while resilience in the dollar also weighed on crude.
Brent oil futures for January fell 0.3% to $62.54 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.3% to $58.31 a barrel by 20:37 ET (01:37 GMT). Both contracts lost between 3.5% to 4%.
OPEC now sees small surplus in 2026 Oil plummeted on Wednesday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries shifted its forecasts to see a small supply surplus in 2026.
The OPEC, in a monthly report, production increases by the cartel and higher supply from other producers. The group also trimmed its demand outlook for 2026.
The OPEC forecast 2026 oil demand at 43 million barrels per day (bpd). This implies a supply overhang of 20,000 bpd if the cartel and allies, the OPEC+, continue to produce oil at current levels.
The OPEC’s forecast for a surplus now brings it in line with forecasts from the International Energy Administration, although the latter expects a much larger surplus. The IEA will release its monthly report later on Thursday.
The OPEC steadily ramped up production so far this year, and plans to increase production further in December. While the cartel did outline plans to halt any further production increases in Q1 2026, its recent output hikes were a major source of anxiety over a 2026 supply glut.
US House votes to end longest ever govt shutdown The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday evening passed a bill aimed at unlocking funding and ending the longest ever government shutdown, with President Donald Trump now set to sign the measure into law.
The bill– which will keep the government funded until at least January 30, was passed in a 222 to 209 vote, with 216 Republicans and six Democrats voting in favor of the measure.
Passage of the bill helps clear some uncertainty over U.S. fuel demand, given that the shutdown caused thousands of flight cancellations across the country.
The end of the shutdown will also allow for the release of official U.S. economic readings, granting markets renewed clarity on the world’s largest fuel consumer.
