Wall Street may be underestimating gold prices by clinging to outdated forecasting tools, Bernstein said that makes a bullish case for the metal hitting $3,700 an ounce by 2026.
Analysts at Bernstein analyzed 15 common methods used to predict gold prices and found that most no longer work, or never really did.
Instead, Bernstein identified six methods that remain useful, many of which focus on government and monetary policy rather than traditional commodity fundamentals.
These include models based on expected Fed rate cuts, interest rate cycles, inflation expectations, and forward pricing.
Averaging these, Bernstein projects a 2026 gold price of $3,700 an ounce, well above the current Wall Street consensus of $3,073.
Consensus assumes gold will mean-revert after peaking, but that logic doesn’t hold for a metal not driven by consumption or supply shocks, according to the analysts.
Gold’s price is unlike other commodities because supply plays a minimal role. Just 1.5% of the gold in circulation today was mined in 2024.
Since gold isn’t consumed and its above-ground stockpile keeps growing, traditional supply-demand models break down.
Instead, prices are largely driven by policy decisions: central bank rate moves, inflation management, and how governments around the world choose to hold or sell their gold and dollar reserves.
Bernstein also reiterated its positive view on gold miners, keeping an Outperform rating on Barrick Gold (NYSE:B), citing 78% upside.
It sees upside potential in Newmont but remains cautious following the abrupt departure of its CFO, maintaining a Market-Perform rating.
While most of Wall Street expects gold to retreat after 2026, Bernstein argues that applying the idea of mean-reversion to gold misses the point.
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