Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is due to report second-quarter results on Thursday, with Wall Street analysts expecting a better-than-expected print, driven by solid iPhone and Mac shipments and resilient gross margins.
Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan forecast revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the March quarter to beat market estimates, aided by a combination of weaker foreign exchange (FX) headwinds and channel inventory pull-forward ahead of potential tariff-related price hikes.
JPMorgan raised its fiscal second-quarter forecast to $95.8 billion in revenue and EPS of $1.66, compared to consensus at $94.2 billion and $1.61, respectively.
“The raise is led by robust iPhone and Mac shipments in the quarter with both smartphones and PCs seeing a pull-forward both by the channel as well as consumers to purchase ahead of price raises,” JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee said in a note.
JPMorgan sees a constructive near-term setup for Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) heading into earnings, anticipating better-than-feared results for both revenue and margins.
The bank believes investor sentiment already reflects concerns over weaker demand and tariff-related cost pressures, while noting that part of the recent strength is being supported by early purchases from consumers and the channel ahead of potential price hikes.
“Our updated revenue forecast implies revenue growth of 5.5% y/y relative to management guidance of low-to-mid single-digit growth with upsides stemming from better near-term demand,” analysts continued.
Morgan Stanley similarly projects revenue of $95.7 billion and EPS of $1.64, citing strong iPhone sell-in, a weaker U.S. dollar, and 12% year-on-year Services growth.
The bank also expects Apple’s capital return update to include a 4% dividend increase and $110 billion in additional buybacks.
The firm lifted its iPhone shipment forecasts for the quarter to 54 million units, up from a prior 51 million estimate, with Mac and iPad expectations also revised higher.
While consensus projects gross margin at 47.1%, Morgan Stanley sees some downside risk for the June quarter due to tariff-related costs but notes this is already reflected in buyside expectations.
The bank notes that key uncertainties around tariffs, China, AI developments, iPhone growth, and regulatory risks remain, and does not expect significant updates during the earnings call.
As a result, the upcoming report may not serve as a major catalyst for the stock, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
